Sunday, October 13, 2013

Against All Odds

Why do you never hear about professional poker players winning slot machine jackpots in casinos -- or scoring a big win at the blackjack table?

Perhaps they know something ordinary "high rollers" don't.  An essay in the Wall Street Journal has a revealing analysis of gamblers in online casinos.

Since the newspaper might put the essay behind a "pay wall," we'll sum it up this way: over a two-year span....

Just 11% of players ended up in the black over the full period, and most of those pocketed less than $150.... Big losers of more than $5,000 among these heavy gamblers outnumbered big winners by a staggering 128 to 1. 

But wait, you say -- poker is different from ordinary gambling.  This report took that argument into account.  From "Sitting at the Virtual Poker Table"....

About one-third of the poker players classified as "most involved" by the Harvard researchers ended up winning money over time, while just 10% of the rest ended up in the black.

So when it comes to poker, it can pay to play on a regular basis.  But when it comes to other casino games, the opposite is true:

The lightest gamblers—the 10% of customers who placed the fewest wagers over the two years—also had the highest winning percentage. About 17% of them ended up in the black—tough odds but still better than the dismal 5.4% winning percentage of the heaviest gamblers.

There are many conclusions we can draw from this study.  One of them is contained in the book of Proverbs:
Of what use is money in the hand of a fool, since he has no desire to get wisdom? - Proverbs 17:16


That verse sounds harsh.  But how many casino players take time to study their chances of winning at the games they play -- for instance, at a slot machine?  With a little thought and research, some money could be saved.

(We should note here the proverb "A fool and his money are soon parted" is not from the Bible -- but it rather surprisingly does have church roots.)

The study also indicates in poker, practice can make perfect -- but not completely perfect.  We'd compare it to a baseball player.  If he gets a hit three times out of ten, he's considered very good.  he Bible talks about "practice" as well....
Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them to practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock.  The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundations on the rock. - Matthew 7:24-25


Practicing the teachings of Jesus does not make you immune from storms - but you'll be able to weather them better.

There's one more Biblical point to make from this study.... but we'll wait to see if you can find it.  We'll bring it up in a future post.

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