If It Was Real: 280-Game Report

An old phrase says familiarity breeds contempt.  At the poker table, we think it also makes you an easy target. We're starting to think the players in our local poker circuit have figured out our strategy -- or else they're reading this blog carefully, and not telling us.

In our last 20 live tournaments, we've made the final table only four times (barely missing two other times).  Compared with a couple of years ago, this is a serious slide for us.  And only two tournaments brought top-five finishes.  We were fourth in October at a Florida poker room (where we're clearly an outsider), then fourth two weeks later at The Red Barn (where we don't play often these days).

Plug those 20 games into our running scoreboard, based on a Kansas City area casino.  Our record now looks like this:

BUY-INS: 280 nights x $50 = $14,000

First -- 5 ($2,500)
TIE for first: 1 ($450)

Second - 8 ($3,200)

Third -- 9 ($2,700)
TIE for third: 1 ($250)

Fourth - 12 ($2,400)
TIES for fourth:
4 two-way ($600)
1 three-way ($67)

Fifth -- 14 ($1,400)
TIES for fifth:
4 two-way ($200)
1 three-way ($17)

TOTAL -- 60 for $13,784


Yes, it's finally happened -- we've fallen below the break-even point on a pretend investment.  After 100 games, we were 45.3% ahead.  After 200 games, it was 24.7%.

So clearly some changes are in order.  But what should they be?  Any suggestions?