Odds Are....

We heard a thought-provoking radio commentary recently which can relate to poker, and many bigger things.  It started with a look at probability.

Flip a typical coin, call heads or tails, and you have a 50-50 chance of making the correct call.  If you flip the coin twice, the odds of it landing "heads" twice are one in four.  Flip it three times, and the odds of three "heads" are one in eight.  And on it goes.

If you play a thinking person's style of poker, you may compute your "outs" as you go.  An open-ended straight draw (let's say 3-4-5-6) gives you eight outs -- as four 2's or four 7's could come up on the turn or river, to complete the straight.  Four cards of the same suit provide nine outs for making a flush, as each suit has 13 cards (13 - 4 = 9).  That's a 9-in-46 chance for a flush on the river, or 19.6%.

So what's our point, you ask?  We'll answer with our own questions: have the odds for making a straight or flush changed over the last 20 years, since the online poker boom began?  Have they changed since the World Series of Poker began in 1970?  Have they changed at all from the days of "riverboat gambling" and the Wild West?

Unless there's cheating, the obvious answer is no.  Decks of standard playing cards still come in 52's, with four suits with an order of Ace-through-2.  The chances of completing big hands have not changed.  That's why they're called laws of probability -- they're constant, like the law of gravity.

If believers in evolution are right, shouldn't those laws have changed at some point?  The only way to improve your chances for a flush is to change the rules of the game.  But the creators of poker (we really don't think Jesus was among them) set "laws" in place, which apparently have been constant for more than 100 years.  God's Law works the same way, too:

Do not add to what I command you and do not subtract from it, but keep the commands of the Lord your God that I gave you. - Deuteronomy 4:2

Moses was given a set of laws by God. including the Ten Commandments mentioned in chapter 5.  He said again for emphasis in his farewell address....

See that you do all I command you; do not add to it or take away from it. - Deuteronomy 12:32

The U.S. Constitution can be amended; it's happened 27 times.  A world governing board over poker could change the rules of the game as well.  But we don't know of one, and "house rules" at each individual poker room deal more with details such as how you bet or claim a pot.  Yet despite what even some ministers claim, God's Law has not changed.

I tell you the truth, until heaven and earth disappear, not the smallest letter, not the least stroke of a pen, will by any means disappear from the Law until everything is accomplished. - Matthew 5:18

Those words came from the mouth of Jesus.  He was the Son of God -- but yes, He was a real "game-changer."  We'll explain what He changed in a future post.